"Increasingly I believe that we can form a new social contract using the technology available to transfer increased decision making authority to the individual. Rather than "fan the fire" or fight the status quo we should use the technology to avoid the current nodes of power and explore alternative approaches at the individual level. Everyone acknowledges that the current paradigm shift in technology will have profound economic and social changes, but we should not overlook the chance to change the political system."
On Saturday September 24 I am speaking at an event for WiseTribe. I am interested in what they are doing because I think they are exploring a new form of "organization" that could be common in the future. Some of my remarks are below.
I have three interests: 1. Entrepreneurship 2. Creativity and early childhood learning 3. Complexity science
• Entrepreneurship is a result of individual empowerment and leads to economic well being. I spend most of my time teaching people to use social entrepreneurship to solve social and environmental problems. My hope is that eventually we can drop “social” because entrepreneurship becomes so responsive to society’s problems. • Creativity interests me because it is the basis for invention and innovation. I study it from the perspective of the young child because so many geniuses say their secret was to maintain a childlike attitude. • Complexity is important because it brings so much insight to understanding people, organizations and networks. There are three types of problems—simple, complicated and complex. Tying your shoes is a simple problem. Building a bridge is complicated, but follow engineering, apply math and bingo a bridge is built. Complicated problems are linear and deterministic. These are the kinds of problems that AI will solve, leaving only the complex problems. Complex problems have independent variables that produce emergent features that are not caused by the variables. Stock markets and social problems are examples of complex problems. Black Swans are a subset of complex problems. • Now if we take complexity in a simple form to understand people, organizations and networks, we see that the roles of each component changes throughout history. When we lived in caves 40,000 years ago the individual was paramount and there were no organizations or networks. Why—no trust and no sharing • Roll forward to the Dark Ages—individuals are enslaved, kingdoms and the Catholic Church are dominant organizations and there are no meaningful networks. • Next 1800s in the U.S.--individuals are becoming empowered after the French Revolution, many small networks such as railroads emerge and the government is emerging as a powerful force. The government increases its dominance throughout the 19th and 20th century because small disorganized networks lend themselves to dominant nodes or organizations. • However, what we have today thanks to computing and the Internet is large, well organized and connected networks. In this environment what network science tells us is that we no longer need large nodes like government. When networks are organized, information exchange is easy and we no longer need large organizations like universities or governments to store and organize information. • Now we could talk about how to redefine government or the modern university, but the more interesting question to me is how do we bring about change through the power of the networked individual. Stanford Social Innovation Review has a very interesting article in which they discuss the new concept of emergent strategy. Emergent strategy, as opposed to the traditional strategy concepts of Michael Porter, focuses on an iterative approach using networked partners to solve problems. Trial and error, decentralized exploration, solid evaluation at every step, transparent reporting—these are the features of emergent strategy, 21st century organizations and movements. In fact this has always been the approach of movements like Gandhi and Mandela. This approach based on emergent strategy has also been embraced by the Rockefeller Foundation, one of the most accomplished social organizations in the U.S. • Now how does all of this apply to WiseTribe? WiseTribe is not an organization. It is a movement, of networked individuals, focused on social and environmental change. WiseTribe is an alternative to government for the management of society—for economic, social and political well being. The government is no longer the default solution. We need to iteratively explore this new power, figure out how to communicate it to more and more people and use WiseTribe(s) to solve the impossible problems that are the ones really worth solving.
One of the great things about Miami is the unique and insightful comments of the foreigners that live there. This morning a very successful Mexican businessman told me he thought Donald Trump should announce the lovely Kim Kardashian as his Vice Presidential running mate. His reasoning was as follows:
Instant name recognition
57 million followers on social media
First VP we have seen nude
To this very compelling logic I could only add one point. Whenever Presidents blunder and get into situations bad for their re-election, a President frequently creates a situation to distract the attention of the American voter. With Ms. Kardashian as VP, the opportunities to distract the American voter are almost endless.
In the early years of this blog there were many funny posts and cartoons. This one on HUTM is probably the most popular. I would not say that we are returning to comical posts here at SF, particularly making fun of such a serious subject as U.S. Presidential elections, but it is tempting :-)
Photo credit: Twitter.com
If you click on the link of Ms. Kardashian, probably best not to do it in the office.
A recent post, "The Business Model to Downsize Government", talked about how the private sector could lead social change. I wanted to come back to this theme when I had more evidence than some research from HBS. I now have several confirmations that show that Tulane University was the local leader in rebuilding New Orleans after Hurricane Wilma. Local government was apparently so corrupt and inept that a group of people, including the leadership at Tulane, took into their own hands to plan and execute a recovery.
Perhaps we have a data point where the private sector addressed and solved a large, complex social problem.
Also, interesting to note that one of the multiple networks of Tulane University (the Trustees) engaged in the project and then energized the other networks to support. Successful organizations have multiple effective networks, but it only takes one network to capture the attention of the other networks and bring to bear the full resources of the organization.
A reader wrote to correct me. The hurricane was Katrina.
Reuters reported today that a group of tech leaders have banned together to attempt campaign finance reform. The group call themselves "Mayday", as in "the ship is sinking". The ship sinking is the American democratic process, subborned by large campaign financiers. Given this news it seemed appropriate to share a post I wrote several months ago but never published til today.
I have been concerned by the popularity of social media such as Facebook, Pinterest and Reddit for several years. I see it as serving no real purpose. I do not think it is a product or a service in the traditional economic sense. I understand that social media is responsive to our fundamental needs for community and collaboration and research even shows that it increases self-esteem in men (and probably dogs). I think of social media like financial derivatives, of limited value and a huge diversion of capital away from productive investment in products and services. But both activities are widespread and I cannot understand social media except in a historical context.
Social media dates back to the Roman times of Cicero (106 BC), according to Tom Standage’s new book, Writing on the Wall: Social Media-The First 2000 Years. Standage makes two important points in the course of tracing the history of social media through to today.
There is always an increase in the frequency and intensity of social media at times of momentous social change. The English Civil War and the French Revolution are cited examples.
Social media uses the newest technology to expand the distribution of the message at times of momentous social change. For example, Christianity was the first religion to make use of paper as the means to distribute its teachings. The German Reformation was facilitated by the newly invented printing press that allowed Martin Luther and others to more quickly and cheaply respond to Vatican criticism.
What Standage helps us to realize is that all the social media we see today is perhaps the smoke and not the fire. The popularity and increase in social media, facilitated by new technology, are most likely the indicators of another momentous social change comparable to the German Reformation or the French Revolution. We know from many sources including Standage’s examples that a momentous social change is either religious or political. There could be a religious movement emerging but I think not. For many people religion is irrelevant today and another significant group are religious extremists unlikely to lead mainstream social movements.
I think that the social change must be political, perhaps 10-20 years in the making or perhaps 50 years will be required. The change that is coming is:
A reduction in the scope of federal and state government
An increase in the importance of local government in part due to the increasing percentage of urban population
I do not come to this conclusion because I am a Republican or a Democrat, which is irrelevant.
Thomas Hobbes and John Locke defined modern democratic government in the 1600s. The purpose of government was to prevent untoward interference in the lives of the citizenry. As people increasingly benefit from existing and future IT tools they will become more and more sole practitioners and independent contractors rather than paid employees. As this trend accelerates people will become comfortable with less and less federal government and a return to a state of "self-reliance" similar to the way the U.S. was pre-1930. People will increasingly wish to reduce their payment of taxes for a government that provides what will be considered unnecessary, overpriced or outdated services. The fact is that today most working people need very limited services from the federal or state government, perhaps only the armed forces, law enforcement, courts, FDA, CDC, research funding, financial instrument regulation and a collection system (taxes) to pay for such services. Other services, including social services for the disadvantaged, could be privatized if desired. National parks might be an example.
Government is slower than slow [to recognize] and particularly at times when the status quo is dramatically changing. Therein lies the risk in government and the reason, in part, that environmental, urban and educational issues have received inadequate attention. Fortunately there are many examples where individuals and private sector companies have taken over the “traditional” role of government, which provides the early evidence for the change in the scope of government I foresee:
More parents are home schooling and charter schools are growing rapidly, replacing government run public education
Public infrastructure such as buses (Miami) and airports (Chicago) are being considered for privatization, matching the way most of the world provides such services
Crowd funding is demonstrating that it can raise serious amounts of money, which allows for the raising of critical early-stage equity capital in a self-regulated environment
Bit Coin, which Investopedia describes as the “alternative currency”, is growing and rumors circulate that large private sector companies such as Facebook will launch their own currencies, perhaps the first currencies not issued by a government in many centuries
The last point of evidence for my prediction both troubles me and gives me hope. The Snowden disclosures of secret NSA information made public the scope of U.S. government surveillance worldwide. I do not condone in any way the Snowden disclosures, but I understand the widespread anger at the scale of the surveillance. Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, was one of the first writers to point out that we are outraged by the federal government’s behavior but no one complains about Google’s collection of so much private data related to our Internet behavior. Effectively, we have more trust and confidence in a Google or a Facebook than in the U.S. government. Whether Google or Facebook warrant the trust may still need to be determined, but they portend a new future of more limited government and greater reliance on individuals and the private sector.
Note: I think the U.S. is probably headed for a prolonged period of slow or modest growth in the economy. Such an event will slow the growth in tax revenues available to the federal government and exacerbate the over borrowed state of federal finances. Such a situation will reduce the government’s ability to pass on benefits to the citizenry and most likely lead to a reluctant reduction in benefits. Such a reduction in government benefits will contribute to the reduced scope of federal government I foresee.
Now this analysis might be entirely wrong. Perhaps there is another momentous social change afoot. Since the time of Franklin Roosevelt, the federal government has been expanding its power as it increasingly provided non-traditional services. What Roosevelt did was re-interpret the constitution such that what was not prohibited was permitted rather than the earlier interpretation that found that only what was stated was permitted. Many Presidents after Roosevelt followed his interpretation of the constitution and federal powers expanded.
At the same time the power of businesses and especially financial institutions was expanding. For example, the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999 greatly expanded the scope of businesses that were permitted for various financial institutions. We can argue about whether this legislative change directly led to the Financial Crisis of 2008, but the near collapse of the world financial system would suggest that financial institutions probably had too much discretion about products and/or risk.
Of course, the increased power of the financial institutions was permitted by the federal government, which brings me to a point. The federal government and business have both increased their power over the last eighty years to the point where we now probably have an unhealthy oligarchy of government and business. Both Karl Marx and Friedrich Hayek, perhaps the two writers who define the limits of the political spectrum, both predicted that businesses would eventually suborn democratic government. I do not know if I am ready yet to state that business has suborned government, but an oligarchy composed of financial institutions and federal government may be correct.
How does one go about challenging an oligarchy? Who is available to work toward re-balancing power, to restoring a more even-handed society consistent with the original tenets of Locke or Hobbes? There are three choices:
Religious organizations
Academia
Media
As stated earlier, religious organizations have lost much of their effectiveness as agents of social change as people increasingly see religion as less important to their lives. Academia may also have little power to bring about social change given the decline in public intellectualism, the de-emphasis of social science curriculum and the job preparation orientation of many universities. Which brings us to the media.
For most of human history, individuals created the information and arranged for its distribution to their community. With the advent of newspapers and then radio and television, the model changed. Information was centrally prepared and then disseminated to the individual. What the IT-based social media of today has done is allow us to return to the historical approach where individuals prepare and disseminate much of the information they wish to consider.
However, the social media remains the smoke and not the fire. The increased social media today still only signals a momentous social change. The momentous social change might be a re-balancing of power in society and the start of a breakup of a government-finance oligarchy. Facebook, Pinterest and Reddit might be just practice for the real battle to breakup an oligarchy.
On various fronts efforts are being made to reduce the scope of federal government. We must be wary that we do not leave businesses or financial institutions as the sole power brokers in society. From totally different perspectives, the considerable intellects of both Marx and Hayek predicted that business would eventually control a democratic society. Restoring the power of the individual in society should be the ultimate objective and the social media of today may be the only remaining way to reach that end. Reading more Hobbes and Locke might also be beneficial.
I commend the people looking to scale back campaign contributions. Please feel free to share this post as a sign of support for Mayday.
In an opinion piece Sunday written by the Editorial Board of the New York Times, "Putting Military Pay on the Table", the newspaper advocates for a reduction in military pay and benefits. The article basically infuriated me for three reasons.
The NYT writes:
"After a decade of war, the very idea of cutting benefits to soldiers, sailors and Marines who put their lives on the line seems ungrateful. But America’s involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan is over or winding down, and the Pentagon is obliged to find nearly $1 trillion in savings over 10 years. "
Essentially we should only appreciate the military when they are actively engaged in a war. Everybody on watch in Afghanistan and other places should not take offense that you are forgotten by the NYT.
The NYT writes:
"Reducing the size of the armed forces would have the quickest effect. The budget office suggests giving smaller pay raises; replacing the current retirement system..."
The Defense Department expenditures of $608 billion represent only 18% of FY 2013 federal government expenditures. Rather than defaulting to reduced military compensation to address budget issues, perhaps we should question first the other 82% of the budget.
In closing, the NYT writes:
"Soldiers must be adequately compensated. But when programs across the government are being slashed, including those affecting the most vulnerable Americans, no budget account can be immune from reductions and reforms. It is a difficult balance to get right.
I would have thought that the "most vulnerable Americans" are the military personnel we ask to go to war, their families and the returning veterans. For people who write for a living, the NYT Times Editorial Board could have been much more considerate in what they wrote.
The Voting Rights Act was passed in 1965, a mere 100 years after the end of the Civil War in the U.S.. Basically the law protected minorities from discrimination in voting. While it took 100 years to draft and pass the law, it was a well written piece of legislation that was hailed as a landmark in the history of this country. Today the Supreme Court struck down Section 4 of the Act as unconstitutional, effectively gutting the law on the basis of what I would call technicalities.
Section 4 states that the federal government has the burden of proof to show that new laws or changes in voting law were non-discriminatory in nine southern states. Effectively, the federal government had to "approve" a state voting law or a change in an existing law before it took effect. Such changes in voting law can still be litigated after the fact, but the burden is now placed on the presumed discriminated party and no longer the federal government. Before today the majority in power (the federal government) had the burden to prove a negative--no discrimination, which is a high standard of proof.
As we look at increased wealth concentration in this country, unrestricted PAC contributions and the ever present lobbying efforts of corporations, we should perhaps be concerned when the burden of proof on those in power is reduced, perhaps at the expense of fundamental constitutional rights.
In the original liberal tradition of Hobbes, Locke and Hume, the purpose of the government was to prevent undue interference in people's lives (and markets). F.A. Hayek, poster boy for the Republican party, popularized this view in the 20th century. Ironically, it was the Republican judges on the Supreme Court who as a majority today rolled back a law that prevented state governments from interfering in the lives of minorities. Maybe the Supreme Court justices need to re-read Hayek.
Concurring Opinions is a blog that focuses on legal issues. Everyone who believes in democracy and wants to understand the intellectual underpinnings should read the blog. Today's CO post commemorates Martin Luther King with a quote from a speech by John Bingham. Amongst his many accomplishments, Bingham was the principal drafter of the 14th amendment to the U.S. Constitution. This Amendment recognized blacks as citizens and gave them equal rights under law.
The quote from Bingham speaking to abolish slavery in the District of Columbia:
"We are deliberating here today upon a bill which illustrates the great principle that this day shakes the throne of every despot upon the globe, and that is, whether man was made for government or government made for man. Those who oppose this bill, whether they intend it or not, by recording their votes against this enactment, reiterate the old dogma of tyrants, that the people are made to be governed and not to govern. I deny that proposition. I deny it because all my convictions are opposed to it. I deny it because I am sure that the Constitution of my country is against it."
For individual empowerment to freely operate, men must govern and not be governed.
The U.S. military is a popular target for criticism and worse. This is especially true during the current two war period. What is frequently forgotten is the social contribution made by the U.S. military. In my lifetime I would point to two major accomplishments:
In the 1950s the U.S. military was the first major organization to eliminate segregation and foster an environment of non-discrimination
In 1969 DARPA, a part of the Defense Department, began the research that lead to the Internet
Today the military is at the forefront in research and development of unmanned aircraft and vehicles. I believe that such equipment will be commonly available to citizens for their every day use within twenty years.
Despite the controversy over global warming and Washington's unwillingness to address the problem, the military is aggressively expanding its use of solar power. This story from Fast Company highlights Project Solar Strong (ok-the name is a little hokey). Solar Strong is a project to provide solar power to 160,000 military residences in the U.S.
One could argue that all this technology was originally developed for war fighting, but that misses the point. The U.S. miliatary is a major force for positive change in the U.S. and much of our way of life is due to their leadership in our society.
In entrepreneurship and in corporate America much is made of the “mission” of the firm. The mission explains the corporate focus and principal objective of the firm. Unfortunately, the mission statement is frequently written and then ignored. Equally problematic is the executive who puts his personal ambition and recognition ahead of the mission.
An excellent example of people who understand mission are the guards at the Tomb of the Unkown Soldier in Washington, DC. This story was sent to me by several people today, the anniversary of the December 7, 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor.
In 2003 as Hurricane Isabelle was approaching Washington , DC , our US Senate/House took 2 days off in anticipation of the storm. On the ABC evening news, it was reported that because of the dangers from the hurricane, the military members assigned the duty of guarding the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier were given permission to suspend the assignment.
They respectfully declined the offer, 'No way, Sir!' Soaked to the skin, marching in the pelting rain of a tropical storm, they said that guarding the Tomb was not just an assignment, it was the highest honor that can be afforded to a service person. The tomb has been patrolled continuously, 24/7, since 1930.
As we prepare for the 4th of July I would like us all to remember Ed "Too Tall" Freeman who died this week in Idaho at 80. Mr. Freeman received the Medal of Honor during the Vietnam War and his citation is here. The MOH is the highest U.S. military honor and has only been awarded 3,462 times since it began during the Civil War.
All of the recipients of the MOH demonstrated extraordinary levels of selflessness and heroism. In this day and age selflessness is almost unheard of and heroism is rare. We should remember these values and Ed Freeman. These are the values that helped to establish the independence and democracy we celebrate every 4th of July.
William Shakespeare said, "he who sheds his blood for me, he is my brother forever". Remember these fine words on this long weekend and take a moment to reflect on all the men and women who have fallen for this country and for what it stands.
My community service includes weekend duty as a Coxswain on patrol boats for the U.S. Coast Guard. A fellow auxiliarist, Kelly Brady, prepared this video of a recent helo ops exercise. Winds off the helicopter are hurricane strength. I am the good looking gray-haired fellow. My wife is in command of the boat during this patrol.
The USCG Auxiliary is a very fine organization that provides valuable services including search and rescue, environmental response, homeland security and boater education. Contact me if you are interested to participate. No experience necessary. Excellent training for all skill levels.
A doctor once told me: never worry about a problem that can be solved with money. Probably one of the two or three best pieces of advice I ever received. As we celebrate Thanksgiving, give thanks for your health, the food on the table and that the U.S. is safe. Avoid all those discussions about the economy, the stock market and the 401K. You will feel better and you will not bore the children.
Also, a prayer for the U.S. military personnel in Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea and unnamed places is in order. Enjoy the holiday!
"It is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us freedom of the press.
It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us freedom of speech. It is the
soldier, not the campus organizer, who has given us the freedom to demonstrate.
It is the soldier, not the lawyer, who has given us the right to a fair trial.
It is the soldier, who salutes the flag, who serves under the flag, and whose
coffin is draped by the flag, who allows the protester to burn the flag."
Father Dennis Edward O'Brien, USMC
USMC--United States Marine Corp
Full credit for this post goes to young Mr. Casnocha. Thank you.
I think there is an increasing tendency for people in the U.S. to overlook the underlying event(s) and focus on the "day off" nature of the national holidays. With fewer and fewer people serving in the military and a very unpopular war in Iraq, it is probably particularly true of Memorial Day. Take a moment on Monday to remember and give thanks for all who have given their lives for this country. While the U.S. may occasionally fight the wrong wars, nobody died for the wrong reason. They served their country when it called upon them.
eMail Our Military is a foundation that supports U.S. military personnel oversees. Babble Soft
and eMail our Military have joined forces to offer free subscriptions
to Babble Soft applications for active duty service members with
newborns. Babble Soft provides web and mobile applications for new
parents. More details are here.
I found this story about eMail Our Military on a memorial day post at A VC. Who says VCs don't have heart.
A friendly reminder--today we should all call or visit our friends, family and associates who served in the military services and thank them. With so many of our military in harms way in Iraq and Afghanistan we should be particularly diligent about recognizing those who have served our country.
With the 4th of July celebrations beginning, many of us will put up our American flags to show our patriotism. With so many men and women in harms way in Iraq and Afghanistan, fly your flag every day as a sign of respect for the people protecting our freedom and maintaining our security.
For those of you planning to do a little boating during the holiday, make sure to check that your flares are not past the expiration date. Also, check that your boat fire extinguishers are still reading in the green. Carry a life jacket for every person on the boat, make sure that children wear their life jackets when underway, leave the beer and wine for after you tie up safely back at the dock and be safe.
