Recently I witnessed some professionals value a regulated company. For discussion, let's say the experts came up with $100 million or about $50 million more than the company's license alone would sell for. The seller only wanted $50 million for the company and the experts were gloating that they were getting the company cheap.
Now let's apply the "smart man" hypothesis, first explained in this post from 2009.Why would a smart man sell his company only for the value of the license. Answer: because the seller knows the customers and related cash flow are going away soon, very soon. The cash flow has no value.
Beware a deal that looks too good. Apply the smart man hypothesis, understand the deal from that perspective and then go back in and do more due diligence.