In 1997 I lived in Jakarta, Indonesia and experienced first hand the violence and protests that led to the change from an authoritarian regime to a fledling democracy. There the protests began with economic events, the 80% devaluation of the currency and the resultant prohibitive increases in food prices. The protests initially were non-violent but escalated as Suharto tried to quell the mobs using the army. At first the army shot in the air to maintain control, but later army snipers killed 6-8 students with head shots. This event was a tragedy that no one in Indonesia could accept and resulted in senior military leaders forcing Suharto to step down.
As I think about what President Obama should be doing in response to the events in the Middle East and northern Africa, I think the first thing is to be in direct contact with the military in those countries. In certain cases we may need to use allies to make the contacts, but the contacts should be initiated. The military in many of these countries are respected, as they were in Indonesia, and they have the power to maintain or terminate any authoritarian regime. After establishing contact, Washington should offer a package of economic, administrative and military aid in return for military support of free elections. The U.S. govrnment just needs to change the situation enough to have elections and if it takes the temporary military government a year or two to hold elections that is satisfactory. Aid could be matched to milestones to insure compliance with the agreements.
The big question that apparently concerns many Americans is whether anti-American, strict fundamentalist Moslem governments will takeover through the democratic elections. In Indonesia the first President post-Suharto was an Islamic fundamentalist, but he was ineffective and lasted only one term. The next elected President was more moderate and he started to restore the economy and put Indonesia back on a road to progress.
My belief is that more moderate governments will eventually emerge in the Middle East if the military insures fair elections. While the more fundamentalist political groups may be better organized initially and may win the first elections in certain countries, governing is a lot tougher and people will vote for economic results over religion if given the chance through free elections.
The U.S. government needs to be patient and let these new democracies learn. As shown by Indonesia, the Phillipines and even Korea and Taiwan, the transition to democracy is not a simple path.
