Random Thoughts

My muse appears to be on vacation this week. Yes--I know this is getting to be a recurring theme, but preparing those SEC documents shuts down the desire to write about anything else. A few quick thoughts follow:

1. Microsoft pulled out of its negotiations with Yahoo because Balmer always had reservations about the deal and used the price difference as the excuse to "gracefully" exit. Nobody walks away from a deal that size over $1-2 per share. No--Steve Ballmer did not call and tell me this, but my explanation is the only logical explanation for the deal collapsing or Microsoft not going hostile. Why did Ballmer start down this road and then change his mind, consider that he and his CFO are a relatively new team that may still be finding their way.  My previous posts on this deal are here and here.
2. Warren Buffet has come out and recommended investment in Europe due to the comparative strength of the Euro versus the US Dollar in the medium term. My thoughts on the subject were here.
3. UBS has reportedly sold a $5 billion portfolio of sub-prime mortgages to a U.S. hedge fund at a discount of only 25 percent. This comparatively minor discount would support claims last week from the Bank of England that banks had over reacted in writing down the value of their sub-prime portfolios.
4. Data has been circulating on the Internet this week that shows the most popular apps on Facebook are for "fun". And all along, I thought Facebook was going to solve world hunger. Everyone building apps for Facebook may want to reconsider their business plans.

Comments

[Kendall]

I think it was easier for Ballmer to pull out because of the massive internal upheaval and Yahoo stock could likely drop over the next 9 months to a very low level, making it an easier pickup. Don't know if you saw Yahoo investor comments about Yang and the board. Nasty over on that side.

Facebook is losing appeal for professionals. Too little time in the day for "fun". Even I am ignoring my emails from Facebook these days.

Got a call today from a bright young man with some sort of great game idea...he said some guy named Robert Barker gave him my number (I think he meant Robert Hacker...a really tall guy). Anyway, he's on his way to med school and though passionate about computer games, is not pursuing a career in that industry. Here's what I told him:

Only 1% of game companies that start actually make it. And only 1% of game ideas inside game companies are even begun. Of those that are published, less than 10% of them make up 90% of the revenue generated. So for every game idea, only 1 of 10,000 get published, and for those, only 10% of them are hits (1 out of 100,000 ideas, roughly). It's a hit driven market, much like Hollywood. Without experience in seeing an idea come to fruition, I think you're better off buying a lottery ticket!

Cheerio...

[Robert Hacker]

Kendall
Glad you could help the aspiring gamer with all the stats. Maybe there is something to this networking stuff.
Bob